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    AI跌�倍，连一瓶矿泉水都比它贵

    2026-04-17 08:22:57分类：榆林阅读(19199)
    \u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection\"\u003e\u003ch3 data-mpa-powered-by=\"yiban.io\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-id=\"88402\" data-tools=\"135编辑器\" style=\"line-height: 27.2px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; widows: 1\"\u003e\u003csection data-id=\"88402\" data-tools=\"135编辑器\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 27.2px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-style=\"line-height: 1.8; text-align: justify; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(117, 114, 114);white-space: normal;\" style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"margin-bottom: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\u003ch3 style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-id=\"88402\" data-tools=\"135编辑器\" style=\"line-height: 27.2px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; widows: 1\"\u003e\u003csection data-id=\"88402\" data-tools=\"135编辑器\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 27.2px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection data-style=\"line-height: 1.8; text-align: justify; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0px; color: rgb(117, 114, 114);white-space: normal;\" style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003chr style=\"font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"/\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: -1.2em; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: -1.2em; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"font-size: 1em; outline: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(127, 127, 127); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.4; outline: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e  \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"font-size: 1em; outline: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(127, 127, 127); color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.4; outline: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e新智元报道  \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; min-height: 1em; outline: 0px; text-align: center; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 1px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e编辑：倾倾\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); letter-spacing: 0.544px; margin-bottom: 0px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003ch5 style=\"background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248); border-radius: 3px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 10px; outline: 0px; padding: 10px; visibility: visible; word-break: break-all !important; word-spacing: 1px !important\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"outline: 0px; visibility: visible\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e【新智元导读】\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;data-pm-slice\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;0 0 []\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e过去一年，AI模型的价格暴跌百倍！同样一句话，去年�块，现在只要几分钱。可与此同时，家政、育儿、心理咨询、维修.....这些「手工活」越来越贵。科技正在疯狂通缩，生活却越来越通胀。这不是经济学笑话，而是Jevons与Baumol共同制造的现实：当机器更聪明，人工就更昂贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e「LLM的token成本每年暴跌百倍，最高端的模型甚至�倍的速度在坠落。」\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e上周，这句话出现在X的一条帖子里。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e没有配图，也没有长文论证，只是一串冰冷的数字。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e但它像一粒钉子，狠狠钉进了整个AI行业的神经——评论区刷屏的是一句话：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e「摩尔定律，回来了。」\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e发帖人是Rohan Paul，一位长期追踪AI成本曲线的分析师。他总结得更直接：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI的价格，正以人类历史上任何技术都未见过的速度坍塌。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e几天后，a16z的研究员Alex Danco在回应：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e每当一种技术变得更便宜，人类劳动就会更贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e两条看似独立的帖子，意外地组成了一个循环。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI的价格在下坠，人类的身价却在上升。技术的通缩，正制造新的通胀。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-imgfileid=\"505095291\" data-ratio=\"0.5267857142857143\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"112\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" style=\"height: 40px; width: 85px\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_0--\u003e一暴跌的AI，通胀的人类\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e过去一年，AI模型的价格几乎是「自由落体式」下跌。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e研究者统计，�年底以来，用GPT-3.5等级模型的费用，从每百万token�美元，跌到如今񊄨.07美元——整整\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e便宜�倍！\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_3--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e不同层级模型的价格坍塌速度存在显著差异\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e最弱模型每年约降𱖯倍，中等�倍，最强�倍。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e另一份来自a16z的分析也指出，LLM推理成本正以\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e每�倍\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e的速度下降，堪比摩尔定律的再生。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI模型价格的时间坍塌曲线。以达到MMLU≥42分的最低价模型为例，成本�年初每百万token 60美元跌�年不𳗠.1美元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e以前一篇生成小说可能要花上几十美元，如今几毛钱就能搞定。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI正在从奢侈品变成「自来水」。用多少都不心疼，甚至会忍不住想多用一点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e可事情并没有想象中那么简单。正如Rohan Paul所说：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e价格下跌不代表节省，而是新的消费爆发点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当模型调用变得廉价，我们开始到处植入AI：写文案、做翻译、编代码、剪视频……\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e算力需求不减反增，反而推高了能源和硬件价格。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e与此同时，那些无法用AI完成的劳动，如家政、护理、心理咨询、维修......反而越来越贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e修个空调、请个保姆，花的钱远超训练一次中型模型。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI世界在通缩，而人类世界在通胀。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_5--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e于是，一个看似荒诞的现实正在发生：AI越来越便宜，生活却越来越贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e算法成本坍塌的背后，是劳动价值在重组：能被机器替代的部分快速贬值，不能被替代的部分，变成了新的「奢侈品」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-imgfileid=\"505095291\" data-ratio=\"0.5267857142857143\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"112\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" style=\"height: 40px; width: 85px\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_1--\u003e越便宜，越上瘾：AI版杰文斯悖论\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003ch2 style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e1865年，英国经济学家William Jevons写下那句著名的警告：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e别以为更高效就能节省燃料——那只会让我们烧得更多。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin: 24px 8px 0px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_7--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI成本暴跌曲线。满足MMLU≥42的最便宜模型，从GPT-3� 美元/百万token，到GPT-3.5-turbo񊄨.5美元，再到Llama 3.2 3b的不𳗠.1美元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当时，他指的是蒸汽机。�年后，这句话正在AI身上重演。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当模型价格不断暴跌，我们以为这是「省钱的时代」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e但事实是，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e成本下降，只会让人更舍得用。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e以前一家公司买算力要开会审批，现在连中小企业都能一键调用GPT-4 Turbo；以前一个人谨慎地在ChatGPT里问十个问题，现在开着十个标签页狂跑脚本。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI不再是工具，而是一种「无限续杯」的资源。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e微软CEO Satya Nadella也在采访中提到：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e杰文斯悖论又回来了：AI越高效、越便宜，人们就越离不开它。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI正从「高端智能服务」变成「新公共设施」——像电、水、Wi-Fi一样，人人都在用。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e这就是所谓的\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e「\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e版杰文斯悖论」\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e：当使用变得太便宜，人类就不再节制。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e用得越多，依赖越深。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e于是我们看到，企业大规模调用模型跑A/B测试；创作者用AI做批量生成；研究机构反复微调模型；开发者开着十几路并行推理。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_8--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e每一次降价，都会带来新一轮「滥用」。每一次效率提升，都会导致新的浪费。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e而算力、能源、芯片也在这种「上瘾式增长」的过程中，被重新吞噬。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-imgfileid=\"505095291\" data-ratio=\"0.5267857142857143\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"112\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" style=\"height: 40px; width: 85px\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_2--\u003e机器越来越聪明，人反而成了「奢侈品」\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI价格一路下坠的同时，一种奇怪的反差正在发生：算法越来越便宜，但人工越来越贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e在美国，一小时的家政服务费，涨到�美元；英国的管道维修师傅，时薪甚至超过了律师。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_10--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI通缩时代的人类通胀：维修工的工资曲线。2020–2025年美国各类技术工种年薪变化，空调维修（HVAC）工资增速明显高于全国中位数。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e一个搞机器学习的工程师，也许只需要几分钱跑完推理；但一个修机器的工人，却要几百块才能上门。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e这不是偶然，而是一种被经济学家预言过的必然。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e上世�年代，杰文斯提出了\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e鲍莫尔成本病理论\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_11--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e他发现，生产率越高的行业（比如制造业、科技业），价格越容易下降；而那些无法提升效率的行业，如演奏、教学、护理、修理反而因为要留住人，被整体经济的工资水平「拖」着涨价。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e简言之：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e效率的\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e红利\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e，会让低效率的工作更贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e把这个模型搬到今天，不难发现：AI是典型的高生产率行业，效率提升一千倍，成本暴跌百倍；\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e但那些无法被AI替代的领域：教育、心理咨询、手工维修、养老护理反而被卷入涨价潮。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e就像a16z在分析中写的：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e技术的通缩，往往制造人类的通胀。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当算力变成自来水，真正稀缺的，就只剩人类的时间、情绪和在场。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e所以我们看到：算法在贬值，人格在升值。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e能被自动化的工作，价格一路下滑；需要「人类气息」的工作，反而成了新时代的「奢侈品」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 2em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e这或许就是AI时代最讽刺的悖论——\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当机器越来越聪明，做一个「人」，反而变得最贵。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-imgfileid=\"505095291\" data-ratio=\"0.5267857142857143\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"112\" src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OFraKUfpfSuwUJmpAh2fJ2e6vslwrOx9b8wpZ1WfoiZRoAA/641\" style=\"height: 40px; width: 85px\" data-aigc-mark=\"0\"/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 8px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 19px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--AIPOS_3--\u003e技术在降价，权力在集中\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e模型的价格一再下跌，听上去像是一场「全民普惠」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e人人都能用，人人都能接入，AI似乎终于变成了公共资源。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e可现实恰好相反——\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e越便宜，权力越集中。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e这些年，降价的主角从来不是开源社区，而是几家巨头：\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003eOpenAI\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e、Anthropic、Google、Amazon。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e他们在「慷慨」地降低API价格的同时，也在\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e重新定义入口\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e模型越便宜，开发者越离不开他们的生态；服务越普及，算力、数据、算法标准也越被他们垄断。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e这就是AI时代的新格局：价格在降，控制在涨。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_13--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e麻省理工科技评论的一篇文章写道：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background: rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.1); border-left: 8px solid rgba(158, 158, 158, 0.3); border-radius: 5px; color: rgb(91, 91, 91); letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 24px; padding-right: 8px; padding-top: 24px; word-break: break-word\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0 8px; padding-left: 8px; padding-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan data-pm-slice=\"1 1 [\u0026#34;para\u0026#34;,{\u0026#34;tagName\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;p\u0026#34;,\u0026#34;attributes\u0026#34;:{\u0026#34;style\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; line-height: 1.75em;\u0026#34;},\u0026#34;namespaceURI\u0026#34;:\u0026#34;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\u0026#34;}]\" leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e当一种技术被「免费化」，垄断往往也完成了隐身。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; margin-top: 24px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI的降价，看似民主化，其实是\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e平台化的加速\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e我们每次调用模型，都在无形中为大公司训练下一代模型。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e价格的坍塌，并没有让世界更平等，只是让我们以更低的代价，把更多的权力交出去。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e与此同时，出现了一批「夹层人类」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e他们不写模型，也暂时不会被模型取代，而是夹在巨头系统与算法之间：提示词工程师、数据标注员、AI审核员、微调操作员……\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e他们的工作短暂、重复，却维持着整个AI体系的运行；他们是被AI放大的劳动，也是被算法消化的人。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI确实变便宜了，但真正昂贵的，是\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e能支配AI的人类时间与注意力\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e于是我们看到一种新的悖论：技术在通缩，权力在通胀。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e模型越平价，生态越封闭；AI越普及，中心越单一。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e也许，这才是「AI通缩时代」最深的隐线——我们以为是走向普惠，其实正进入一个\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e成本趋零、权力归一\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e的世界。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e我们经历的，不只是一场技术降价，而是一场价值重组。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e模型越来越便宜，算法越来越快，效率像潮水一样泛滥。可真正被稀释的，其实是「人的定义」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003eAI在吞噬重复、压低成本的同时，也在反向抬高稀缺性：创造力、情绪、判断、陪伴，这些无法被算法计算的部分，成了新一代的「高价资产」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e未来或许不是AI取代人类，而是「AI给人类定价」。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e有些人会被替换；有些人，会被加价。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.75em; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 1px\" textstyle=\"\"\u003e降价的是模型，升值的是人心。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 1.75em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 8px; min-height: 1em; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e参考资料：\u003c/span\u003e\u003csection\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\" style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003ehttps://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/1985671550713147667\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003csection\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\" style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136); font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003ehttps://a16z.substack.com/p/why-ac-is-cheap-but-ac-repair-is\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: 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#FFFFFF;--weui-BG: #FFFFFF;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111111;--weui-BG-1: #1E1E1E;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2C2C2C;--weui-BLUE-100: #10AEFF;--weui-BLUE-120: #0C8BCC;--weui-BLUE-170: #04344D;--weui-BLUE-80: #3FBEFF;--weui-BLUE-90: #28B6FF;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: #48A6E2;--weui-BLUE-BG-110: #4095CB;--weui-BLUE-BG-130: #32749E;--weui-BLUE-BG-90: #5AAFE4;--weui-BRAND-100: #07C160;--weui-BRAND-120: #059A4C;--weui-BRAND-170: #023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: 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